Unpacking 25 Years of New Zealand’s Wild Immigration Ride

The Changing Face of Aotearoa: A Diversified World

Emerging Insights on New Zealand Immigration Trends

For much of its history, immigration to New Zealand was dominated by settlers from the British Isles. The last 25 years have fundamentally changed that picture. Policy reforms in the 1980s and 90s dismantled preferences for European migrants and introduced a skills-based points system, opening New Zealand’s doors to the world.

The top five source countries that have defined 21st-century migration to New Zealand are:

• United Kingdom: Still the largest single group of migrants in 2020, the UK’s relative dominance has waned as other nations have risen.
• China: Migration from China grew exponentially, largely driven by the international education sector, with many students using post-study work visas as a pathway to residency.
• India: Following a similar trajectory to China, Indian migration has been heavily fueled by the “study-to-work” pathway, making it a leading source of new arrivals.
• Philippines: The rise of the Philippines is more recent and directly linked to specific labor shortages in healthcare, construction, and agriculture.
• Australia: The trans-Tasman relationship is a unique, two-way street, with the flow of people highly sensitive to the economic performance of both countries.

At the Helm: Political Leadership and Migration Milestones

Successive governments have steered the ship through these turbulent waters, each leaving a distinct mark on the country’s migration landscape.

Milestone and Period	Defining Characteristic	Key Statistic	Prime Minister(s) in Office
Early Century Peak (Early 2003)	Post-reform consolidation and growth	Net gain of over 60,900	Helen Clark (Labour)
Peak Trans-Tasman Outflow (2012)	“Brain drain” to Australia’s mining boom	Net loss of 62,800 NZ citizens to Australia	John Key (National)
Sustained Boom Peak (2016-2017)	Temporary migrant and student-led surge	Net gain of 72,300	John Key / Bill English (National)
COVID-19 Trough (2021-2022)	Border closures lead to net migration loss	Net loss of -17,700	Jacinda Ardern (Labour)
All-Time Net Migration Peak (Oct 2023)	Post-pandemic rebound and record influx	Net gain of 135,500	Chris Hipkins (Labour)
Record Migrant Departures (June 2025)	Post-peak exodus and market correction	Provisional peak of 127,500 departures	Christopher Luxon (National)

Data sourced from documents within this analysis.

Deeper Currents: The Forces Shaping Migration

Beneath the surface-level numbers lie powerful forces driving these trends.

• Domestic Policy: The Skilled Migrant Category (SMC) and the Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) are the primary levers the government uses to manage migrant flows. Recent changes aim to better target genuine skill shortages and create clearer pathways to residency for highly skilled workers.
• The Australia Factor: The wage gap between New Zealand and Australia creates a constant magnetic pull. This dynamic ensures the trans-Tasman “brain drain” remains a permanent variable in New Zealand’s migration equation.
• Global Shocks: The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be a fundamental reset of global mobility, demonstrating how quickly migration flows can be severed and how powerful the “homing instinct” can be in a crisis.

Interestingly, the record departures of 2025 are a direct consequence of the record arrivals that preceded them. Many who gained residency are now gaining citizenship, which grants them unrestricted access to the higher-paying Australian labor market. This creates a “brain gain-to-brain drain” pipeline, where New Zealand acts as a stepping stone to Australia.